CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Oct 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Wind
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become disturbed early to mid UTC
day on 10 Oct. The CME associated with the X1.8 flare has a measured
velocity between 1400-1600 km/s, the CME will lose speed as it traverses
interplanetary space and is expected to reach Earth with a velocity of
600-700 km/s according to Enlil model guidance. The solar wind will
experience an abrupt jump, or sudden impulse, which will be associated
with the shock of the CME. The winds will ease slightly following the
shock but will maintain higher velocities as the bulk of the magnetic
cloud moves in. The total magnetic field is expected to increase upon
arrival. CME influences will likely continue into 11 Oct with waning
influences 12 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Waning influences from CME arrival caused the geomagnetic field to hit
G1 (Minor) storming levels between the 03-06 synoptic periods and has
been Active to Unsettled since.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field will remain Quiet to Unsettled prior to the
arrival of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare. After the sudden
impulse described in the Solar Wind section arrives at the ACE satellite
it will be roughly 35-45 minutes (if speeds are 600-700 km/s) before
magnetometers on the Earth's surface start to respond. Behind the shock
will be the bulk of the magnetic cloud which will maintain a disturbed
geomagnetic field for 10 Oct into 11 Oct.

The magnitude of the flare, the associated protons, the location of the
region being near center disk, and a strong consensus on the speed leads
to high confidence in timing and potential magnitude. Current thinking
is that the bulk the disturbance will be on 10 Oct with elevated but
waning influences into 11 Oct. A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm Watch has
been issued for 10 Oct and 11 Oct.

Caveats to be considered; there is usually a +/-8 hour time window of
arrival, the current 3-day forecast has an arrival around 10/1200 UTC
and the orientation of the magnetic cloud is always uncertain. If the Bz
component of the magnetic field remains northward impacts will be
minimal but if a sustained southward Bz is what comes in contact with
Earth's magnetosphere for an extended period then G4, possibly G5
(Extreme), conditions will be possible.

-Bri

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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